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Leave The Boom And Bust Cycle Of Life

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Stock Market Photo by Perpetual Tourist - Flickr

Growing up in two market bubbles

I was 10 years old when the stock market entered an epic gurgle and burp. The technology bubble was well underway. As a child, I couldn’t help notice the daily papers’ coverage. Cisco, IBM, and Microsoft were going to stun the world, and a wealth of startups were making groundbreaking achievements through the Internet. Stores were moving online — people could buy stuff from their couches. And the market loved it.

Then it all came crashing down. Without profits and expected cash flow, companies petered out. They couldn’t sustain their losses, and the market was late to the realization. Nonetheless, as soon as people began selling the tech sector, stocks were doomed. The NASDAQ collapsed over a one-year period. While some had benefited from the meteoric rise, many failed. They chased moneyed dreams. The market had become a ponzi scheme of sorts, and the burst annihilated portfolios.

Average Joe’s and Jane’s across the world were affected. Money disappeared from pensions, IRAs, 401ks, and regular old investment accounts. Suddenly, people’s spending reduced — sour from massive losses and concerned about financial futures. People cut back because their ability to save and earn was jeopardized.

Putting the past behind us

Over time, these booms and busts are held in reverence. Ah, remember the market crash of 1999-2000? How about Black Monday? Oh, and how about the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009? Those were the days, right?

We try to put these events behind us and focus on the future. Some may say, “We’re long past those idiotic dreams and bubbles. We know better now.” We treat these as abnormalities — one-off events. The mavens repeat their mantras to calm the masses: “Timing is your friend. The market will recover.” But we never fix the underlying, systemic problems; thus, the cycle continues: boom and bust after boom and bust.

Wallets eventually open again. The economy eventually “bounces back.” In time, market optimism returns because consumer discretionary spending increases. Stocks get bid up again. And while we hope another bubble never returns and convince ourselves that a lesson was learned, something in us remains. We are still humans — the ones who caused the bubble in the first place.

That mentality to save every penny in crises fades like the hangover of a party best forgotten. We get excited again, and invest in financial instruments that some “guru” recommends that make little sense to us. We convince ourselves that we know better than to fall into some scam or trap. Eventually, the price of stocks becomes too expensive to sustain their momentum — for whatever the reason — and the roller coaster plummets.

Boom and bust cycles are everywhere

Even beyond the stock market, various points in history talk about cutting back and saving. For instance, the entire country rationed gasoline, coffee, and other necessities for those in combat during World War II. Our sacrifices would win the war. Our rationing would help others in need. And our country helped us collectively achieve this goal. These were frugal times. But after World War II ended, the country entered one of the largest economic growth spurts of all time. Production was enormous and the largest generation followed: the Baby Boomers.

California Drought Map

More recently, an epic drought has swept over California. Crops are unable to grow and farmers are being asked to cut back on water usage. Without rain and irrigation, this might be one of the worst seasons for the West coast. Every time you look at the map of California it’s bright red for “exceptional drought.” There isn’t another level dryer, unless we’re forced to create it.

This exceptional drought has led to more brush and forest fires. People and their homes have been threatened. The state has fought bravely against these disasters, and many are pitching in to conserve and ration their precious water. Smartphone apps have been created to rat out neighbors who are using more than necessary. Residents are being asked to let their lawns brown. Certain crops and foods (i.e., almonds) are being targeted because of their excessive water needs.

The city of glitz and glamour, Los Angeles, has been a focal point for conservation. Rivers are non-existent and the heat bakes the surface. Many celebrities have extolled the value of cutting back, too. But everyone is wondering whether California will be able to weather this drought. What if the rains never return in full force? What if the land stays perpetually scorched? How long could this exceptional drought really last?

At many points in history we’ve done well rationing, scrimping and saving amidst tragedy. We come together and embrace each other as humans. We work together to move beyond struggle. And we ultimately have overcome every major concern we’ve ever faced. But over time, humanity has a painfully ironic inability to hold back and resist the urge to spend and splurge. We seem to perpetuate feast or famine — unable to live in moderation and within means. If history repeats itself (and it does), then we will likely see California boom again if the rains return. People will resume their previous water usage and restaurants will once again drop off full glasses of water without asking first.

Five ways to weather any storm

From the stock markets to droughts to wars, the booms and busts are everywhere. If we admit that we have a cyclical problem, the question becomes, What can we do about it? The following are five rules to follow a middle path in times of tragedy and prosperity:

1. Create a rationed budget

At the heart of saving more and spending less is a good budget, but what if you lopped off $100, $200, $300, or more each month? What if you pretended that the money was gone? In modelling the potential new budget during a tragedy or bust cycle, you can see the depths of your budget. If all else failed and suddenly made less each month, how would your spending change? How would your savings change? How would you cut back? The essential aspect to this thought experiment is actually going forth with it. Enact the rationed budget and see how low you could go. Pretend that the crisis is here, and save for better times. Then, if a problem occurs, you’ll follow a path of moderation.

2. Spending shouldn’t change based on market optimism

It’s easy to get swept away in the good times. People buy enormous houses, $1 million vehicles, and gigantic yachts when the market is doing well. Success looks like materials, so people buy in. To weather storms, spending cannot cave to market swings. Consistency is key. When others start buying wildly and race to the top, you should be thinking about where you’re spending too much.

3. Saving shouldn’t be limited to tough times

Saving money and concentrating on safe investments should always be a first priority. That priority shouldn’t waver or change amidst good times or bad. Tough times are the hardest time to save, actually. Think about it, if times are tough, you’re clearly strapped for cash. Save in the windfalls, booms, and busts. Again, to find the middle path amidst the excitement and tragedy, you need to calmly continue your savings.

4. Don’t trust market makers and commentators

Turn on CNBC and your brain will instantly accommodate talking heads’ suggestions. Their swanky ties, expensive suits, beautiful sets with technology galore, and impressive lifestyles can be captivating. I’ll be the first to admit that being able to eat at wonderful restaurants, travel the world in a jet, and drive a fast car sounds intriguing. But those market makers and commentators are selling a life that is temporary and not available to everyone. I will never own a jet or drive a Ferrari. Why would their advice and financial “expertise” help me? They live in a different category of human. Try to avoid their messages, as it can help you stay frugal.

5. Find a greater purpose/sacrifice to motivate modest lifestyles

Modest lifestyles can be challenging. It means eating out less, owning less, and looking for ways to invest and save every extra penny you have. But doing any of these things means bucking a system that encourages spending everywhere you go. Walk out the door and you’re bombarded by places to go, see, and spend. It’s easier to listen to these messages. To have a lasting, rationed budget or save more, you must find a higher purpose and reason to dig deep. Saying you get to live modestly through booms and busts isn’t enough. For me, I recognize that climate change is directly affected by my consumption behaviors. That changes my behavior. Additionally, I hold powerful regard for time to be peaceful, calm, and at rest. I value time over money.

We can leave the boom and bust cycle. We can protect ourselves and those around us, too. Create a rationed budget, and live it. Spend less than those around you. Save more than you thought you could. Don’t waiver as others panic or lavish themselves. Lastly, find a higher purpose that’ll motivate you when the going gets tough.

Frugal Articles of the Week

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Last week I took a little break from the frugal round-up. Sorry Frugaling fans, but I’m back and have a terrific list of favorite reads over the last couple weeks. Hope you enjoy and share widely!

Slow Cooker Chicken Ropa Vieja by Budget Bytes
This week I’m hoping to cook this special recipe up! Budget Bytes is one of my favorite frugal blogs because the author breaks down total and serving cost for all the meals. This chicken dish costs about $1.32 per serving. Heck yes, I’ll try it!

Living In An Expensive City Can Make You Richer, Happier, And More Diplomatic by Financial Samurai
Here’s a unique twist on the choice between big-city and small-town living. Sam reviews some compelling reasons for considering more expensive cities. One of the most interesting centers on the push and need for frugality in a bigger city with less space. Cities seem to be bastions for minimalism and simple living, and when done right, can still be affordable places to live.

Why Do We Like Brands As Much As We Like People? by Eric Jaffe
Do we love Apple, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Pepsi, Google, etc? Can we love brands? If so, what does that mean for our spending habits? This article analyzes the very real effect that your love/like of brands has.

Millionaires Who Are Frugal When They Don’t Have to Be by Paul Sullivan
Frugality crosses income and wealth classes. It doesn’t mean that wealthy people can’t be frugal. This is a philosophy and way of life. Paul Sullivan from The New York Times perfectly highlights the trend of millionaires living well within their means.

Escape to Bro-topia by Steven Kurutz
Despite an abysmal, corny title, this New York Times article features one man’s simple life… in the trees. He built an incredible house in the forests of Oregon. Take a look at these pictures, too!

$200 Frugal Food Budget for May

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Korean BBQ Food

Why I reduced my food and drink budget

In December I sat down and said, “enough.” I needed to cut back on my food expenses. Seriously, it was embarrassing and hurting savings. Every month involved hundreds of dollars in restaurants, fast food, and snacks on the go. When I finally shared it with you all — the readers of Frugaling — I felt nervous. How would people react? It was one thing to spend the money privately, but to openly disclose it made me anxious.

As the year turned from December to January, I knew that I needed to change spending habits. It was time to start saving, cutting, avoiding, and scrimping here and there. Likewise, I wanted to avoid debt at all costs, and recognized that in the next couple years I’ll need to spend thousands in job interviews, moving expenses, and rent. I couldn’t continue spending like mad, and actually afford these future hurdles. To be clear, “affording” means spending money on something without debt.

There was little room to save on rent or educational expenses. Additionally, I had sold my car, gotten rid of insurance payments, and moved on from any semi-optional expenses. The only piece left was the food budget. Darn it, though! I didn’t want to cut back for years.

When I first started the journey, I picked a number. It was somewhat random, but I wanted something exceptionally challenging and possible. I needed to eat healthily, too. So, I chose $200. That would be more than a 50% decrease in my budget for food and drinks.

Here’s a review of previous months

Monthly Food Budget Chart

When January started, I holed up and tried to by some basics. But as the month continued, I realized I was severely underprepared and over budget. I wasn’t eating out frequently, nor was I buying lavish foods. Still, I didn’t know how to budget for this new level and ended up well over the line. Even though I had saved about $100 in one month, I knew I had more work to do.

Over the following months, I tried harder and even came pretty darn close to the tough goal. In February I was able to get within $12 of the budget through some serious cost-cutting and sacrificing. Frankly, I felt an internal pressure towards the end of the month. I knew I’d be close, and wanted the chance. My food stocks grew dangerously low and the repetition of the same foods night after night wore me down.

From then, my spending grew and it’s stayed above my $200 budget goal. It’s been one of the most frustrating parts of my budget and frugal goals. I know, understand, and see countless examples of individuals and families doing better. And there’s this guilt, as I’d like to live modestly. An expensive food and drink budget smacks in the face of that value. Plenty live on less. Plenty of live on less than they need. And I don’t want to live some lavish alternative life — above it all. I want to be in it. I want to feel the cuts.

The May food budget… Failure?

Now, I turn to May. Oh, May, you pesky month! This fifth month of my food and drink budget tired me. The middle of the month represented the end of my third year of graduate school. For us students, it was cause for celebration. And celebrate, we did.

Here’s a review of this month’s spending:

May Food Budget Table

Part of the graduate school tradition at the end of the year is to go out, eat, and drink. Soak up the momentary freedom. This can be a challenging environment to save in, but it’s challenging not to seek out these moments and live them up when you can. Busyness prevents many of us from congregating as large groups. These moments are unique and special. When possible, I tried to go without or only one drink, meal, etc.

Nonetheless, as the table shows, the final total was $247.37. While an incredible $200+ decline from when I started this journey, I still couldn’t meet the goal.

Looking forward and long-term tracking

Because I’ve shared my budget a few times before, it’s not quite as embarrassing anymore, as it is personally frustrating. I’ve seen great benefits from trying to save. Hundreds of dollars have been invested, which were previously squandered. I feel healthier and eat foods that suit my own body’s needs. I do feel like a more modest person, and constantly try to recognize that I’m still privileged to have a full meal. Many do not share that luxury.

Another piece that I’m appreciative of is the tracking. Now, I can look back on my spending and clearly see where it’s spent. There are clear totals. Month after month, I can create a better average of spending versus one month’s test. In fact, my average spending for these five months was $264.78. That’s amazing to me, as I’ve never spent this little since high school. More importantly, the average is what I want to continue to reduce.

My friends and family continue to ask about this food budget. “Will you continue?” they ask. “Are you still doing that food budget thingy?” Why yes, I will continue. And yes, I’m still doing that food budget thingy. Maybe for the rest of my life, too.

June will be a tough month, as I’m traveling much of it. I’ll track and share, but I might need to pass for some increased spending. Sorry Frugaling fans! I hope you’ll forgive me. In July I’ll hunker down even further and do everything in my power to save.

How have you been doing on your food budget? What snags and troubles have you experienced? What are your recommendations for saving more? How do you rope people into joining you for your food budget? What motivates you?

Everything We Learned About Investing Was Wrong. That’s Why We Need Betterment.

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Wall Street Photo Wikipedia

What I learned about investing from my grandparents

As a young child, I loved pouring over the daily stock tables. Every day, I would scan over the newspaper to see how stocks moved up, down, and sideways. It was this fun dance of numbers.

Age-old wisdom about stocks was shared with me, too. Find some blue chip stocks and invest for the long-term, my grandparents said. They taught me about investing in great companies and pointed out stocks like GE, International Paper, IBM, and Wells Fargo. But living through the tech bubble and mortgage crisis tainted my perspective — it wasn’t easy to digest that buy-and-hold strategy.

My Millennial status seemed to set me up for some strong investments at a young age. I had a knack for picking winners. I purchased Apple in the double-digits before multiple splits. I eyed Google, but didn’t have any money to invest around $100 per share. More recently, there was Tesla Motors, where I invested around $30 per share. I don’t often take to optimism, but these companies embodied a positivity for the future. There was hope in these companies. It was easy to invest.

While the preceding investments paid off, plenty of others failed. There were embarrassing investments that went totally south. Additionally, trading fees ate up gains and increased losses. When you only have a couple thousand dollars to invest, losing $10 per trade can be painful.

Eventually, companies started marketing ETFs heavily. Some even incentivized the purchase of ETFs via free trades. But the investment fees were often expensive and I needed to buy whole shares. If I didn’t have enough liquid cash, I wasn’t going to be able to buy one. The money would sit in a paltry savings account and dwindle.

I spent years at Vanguard Group. They’re friendly, available, and supportive to smaller investors. They’re customer owned and tend to have lower transaction fees (about $7 per trade). The big bonus was low-fee ETFs that could be traded for free. It was perfect, except that income fluctuations and whole-share buying restricted diversification.

You’ve been investing wrong, here’s why

This summer, I decided to read A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I heard that this was the ultimate, research-based, investment strategy book. The author Burton Malkiel outlined the major investment theories that market makers, advisors, and average investors used.

The book blew my mind and set me on a race to change my investments. Malkiel introduced fundamental ideas such as, the more an individual trades (frequency), the worse they perform (usually). So if you trade nervously throughout the market’s swings, you’re likely performing worse than the broader market (compared to the S&P 500). The author also noted that male investors traded more often than women, too.

Fundamentally, the entire book wrapped psychology, economics, and politics into one perfectly assembled masterpiece about investing. I felt like I was sipping from the fountain of youth and could finally understand why — despite some good investments here and there — I was performing worse than the broader market averages.

Every time I thought I discovered a new pattern in the market or companies introducing breakthrough technologies, the entire market was too. I wasn’t the only one, and that screwed with my ability to profit from reason. And even more powerful, was this statement, “Even real technology revolutions do not guarantee benefits for investors.” That crushed my soul. How could I invest in life-changing technologies and companies, but not see profit and gain? The reason: companies are constantly growing and changing and falling from grace. It’s a constant cycle. To predict one company over every other competitor and up and comer is dangerous, potentially futile, and rarely as safe as investing in a broader average (a basket of stocks).

The book brilliantly analyzed humans’ use of heuristics and time-saving mental machinations that actually served to stifle our gains. Convinced that we are always right, we tend to reflect on our more positive investments and downplay the negative ones. We like to think we can “beat the market.” Being average is a bore, right?!

We grow up reading and watching articles and movies and novels that take us on an arc: introduction, rise, climax, decline, resolution. We grow accustomed to this style of story from a young age. And that can easily be applied (poorly) to the markets. We can look for climaxes and resolutions, where they might not be there. We can analyze past chart history to predict the future, but research shows that doesn’t give us an advantage over broad indexing. Despite searching for market patterns, rules to the market, etc., we overwhelmingly fail — time and time again — when compared to the averages. Our minds are tricking us.

As a species we love heuristics. Brain schemes allow us to save time and look for patterns. In nature, patterns help us stay safe — snakes are dangerous. TV shows follow traditional arcs: intro rise climax decline conclusion. An episode of Law and Order follows characters for one hour through a new problem. We expect a resolution. By 45-50 minutes in, we should find our culprit. When we apply these patterns and rules to the market, we tend to fail. Even if there are patterns, the markets quickly learn about them and destroy the potential use. When everyone knows the pattern, nobody needs it. The market smooths out the differences that the pattern once held. As much as our minds search for patterns and see them, they’re an evil chicanery. The market winners know this.

After reading all the books conclusions, it was like getting smacked over the head with a large frying pan. I felt dizzy and sick. Why hadn’t I been given this knowledge prior to this date? Why had I been allowed to invest on my own, without any research understanding of market behavior?

I was investing all wrong. It was costing me money (in fees, lack of diversification, and portfolio performance) and time (researching different investments, ETFs, and scanning for proper diversification). After reading the book, I couldn’t help but look for a better way.

How to easily, affordably diversify

Betterment allocation
Betterment allows investors to easily diversify and allocate.

Over the last five or so years, there’s been a torrential rise in robo-advisors. These are companies that invest the money for you, with little overhead and fees. Additionally, they use the market theories introduced by Burton Malkiel’s book and apply it to your investments. Instead of staking claims on individual stocks, which are prone to heavily volatility (read: risk), they broadly diversify across sectors and areas of the economy. The intention is to keep risk minimal, while maximizing performance.

The research is clear: low-fee diversification via ETFs is the best option for most investors. Moreover, when it’s managed and invested for you it cuts down on day trading and psychological biases. Numerous companies have sprouted up to take on the challenge. The most popular robo-advisors tend to be Betterment, FutureAdvisor, Schwab’s Intelligent Portfolios, and Wealthfront. Each provides different fee structures and diversification practices. It’s important that you select the best one for your financial needs.

Recently, I wrote about how it is hard to save when interest rates are this low. It’s pushed the stock market higher, but left savers in the lurch. The average interest rate on a savings account is 0.06%, while inflation rates generally stay around 1-2%. That means you’re losing money by keeping it in a savings account.

With little disposable income or money available to invest, I wanted a robo-advisor that would provide all the diversification I needed, with few fees, and the ability to invest immediately — without a minimum. That’s a tough bargain, right?

After considering all these factors, Betterment was the clear winner. Let me tell you why.

Betterment marries technology and market knowledge to provide a low-cost choice. They provide three brackets for users: 0.35% (below $10,000), 0.25% ($10,000-$99,999), and 0.15% ($100,000+). When you have less than $10,000 invested, like me (for now), that 0.35% management fee is assessed — regardless of returns. Thankfully, that’s comparable to all the current robo-advisors right now (note: Schwab’s Intelligent Portfolios don’t charge a direct fee, but they grab your interest in a forced cash quantity — 6% of the portfolio).

My prediction is that these fees will precipitously reduce over the next 5-10 years. The technology will clearly be very competitive and adaptive. Any company that continues to charge a lot will be priced out of the market. Competition will be extremely helpful in this area.

Here’s what I like about Betterment:

No minimums

There are no minimums for new accounts. Thankfully, simpletons like me can start with $100 and invest over time. This is especially helpful for irregular — month-to-month — incomes. Let’s say I make $2000 this month, which provides $1000 to invest with (rounding for simplicity), I can direct that $1000 into Betterment. But if I can’t rely on that amount, and I make $1100 the next month, I can manually transfer in $100 instead. The only minimum you need to meet is $100 invested per month until you reach $10,000. Once you reach that level, you reduce to 0.25% in management fees and $0 minimum deposits.

Fractional shares

This really sets Betterment apart from the rest of the pack. Normally when you invest, you need to buy whole shares. That means if there’s an ETF that costs $125, but you only invest $100, it won’t be purchased. Unfortunately, uninvested cash can hurt your potential gains. Betterment allows you to purchase fractional shares of every ETF they invest in. Your money is always working at full capacity!

Goal-based investing

Betterment accounts
Betterment allows you to have specific goals and accounts. Then, you just need to follow their advice!

Psychologically, humans suffer without clear goals. With retirement and other long-term goals (vacations, cars, homes, etc.), it’s tricky to understand how best to allocate funds. How much do you really need to invest in your Roth IRA to maintain your current standard of living? How much to improve it? How much if you cut back a bit? This is where Betterment shines. The company has designed beautiful graphs customized to your needs. For instance, I’m saving to move away from Iowa City right now. I estimate that I’ll need a couple thousand dollars when it comes to interviews for jobs and moving and finding a new place to rent. That all costs sizable sums, and I don’t dare consider debt. I estimate the time until completion, and Betterment provides an initial deposit and regular monthly contribution to meet the goal. Simple, as any financial advisor should be.

Smart rebalancing

The maintanence of a diverse portfolio is one of my least favorite activities. Let’s say I want to be invested in 90% stocks and 10% bonds, but the stock market has improved and bonds have lagged. Your stock position might represent more than you allocated. That requires you to sell a portion of the stock and reinvest elsewhere to regain balance. This can be time-consuming and tax-laden. Thankfully, Betterment handles it automatically. If your portfolio “drifts” 5% from its intended allocation, they’ll rebalance for proper diversification. Additionally, they’ll minimize any tax implications associated with the activity. That’s one of the hardest parts of managing your own portfolio.

Tax-loss harvesting

For those in the big leagues with lots more money than me, you also could benefit from tax-loss harvesting. Essentially, the portfolio will sell off your losses so that you can have a tax writeoff and invest in a comparable stock. Without getting into the weeds, that’s a really good thing as you want to prevent “wash sales.”

Behavioral change

This aspect has nothing to do directly with money. Since my shift to Betterment, I’ve noticed I’m calmer and clearer about my investments. I know how I’m invested and why. Likewise, I have confidence in the market principles that are used. Whereas individual stocks can make you go wild — needing to buy and sell all the time — this highly diversified portfolio provides comfort.

Next-day investments

Another essential aspect for any company managing your money is rapid investment of deposits. Betterment invests all your deposits the next day. With that turn around you don’t miss the market’s moves, and can quickly benefit. Numerous companies require cash to be held about 3-5 days before it’s invested, and then you need to find ways to diversify it. Betterment does all the work for you.

Here’s what I dislike:

No direct transfer from brokerage to IRAs

This is a pesky rule, but Betterment does not allow any cash positions. Therefore, to transfer money from a brokerage account in the company to an IRA, you need to withdraw the funds and redeposit them through your bank account. That takes a lot of time, in some cases. For instance, if I want to invest $500 from my brokerage to Roth IRA, it’ll take about 1 week or more even though Betterment already has all my funds.

No progressive fee structure favoring poorest

I’m disappointed that no robo-advisor’s fee structure is preferential for those with less. It’s a universal problem for the industry, not just Betterment. Still, I’d like to see the process of investing and taking charge of your future be easier for everyone involved. Those with $100 per month or less to invest shouldn’t have to pay more than those who invest $1000.

No manual cash positions

Sometimes, especially near retirement, it can be helpful to temporarily have cash or cash-equivalents in your account. Unfortunately, Betterment does not provide space for cash positions. They note that it goes against their entire premise and philosophy to allow pure cash positions. I understand their rationale, but it’s scary not being able to run for cover (you have to withdraw to your bank account to be in cash).

No expected returns presented

Instead of presenting expected returns from your portfolio allocation of stocks and bonds, Betterment provides predicted totals. As a novice, it would be helpful to see gains in a percentage form. That way I could compare portfolio allocations to other types of investments.

No real estate exposure

Lastly, Betterment doesn’t seem to provide real estate exposure through something like Vanguard’s REIT ETF (VNQ). Burton Malkiel suggested that some amount of nearly every retirement portfolio should have real estate exposure because they’re a safer place for higher yields. I would tend to agree, especially since the population growth rate is very strong in America.

After I read Malkiel’s A Random Walk Down Wall Street, I realized I needed to take action. But even before that book, I wanted something that would minimize my time spent researching ETFs and strategies and individual companies. Betterment has been the perfect solution, and a wonderful way to concentrate on what really matters: those around me.

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