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Stop Predicting The Future, You’re Terrible At It!

By Frugaling 7 Comments

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Coffee and Journaling

We humans are really good at convincing ourselves of our “upper hand” — that we can see the “truth” when others cannot. We repeat stories of winning hands, the right stocks, and big paydays with our closest friends. Examples and supposed successes of prediction are trumpeted in our skewed media landscape, too.

For instance, CNBC and other financial news networks feature stock chartists who create lavish drawings of candlesticks, moving averages, and support levels. Lines are drawn and circles made on fancy touchscreens. When a stock fails to perform as predicted, it’s written off as a statistical anomaly. And nobody returns to the err. The reality is that any stock-picking strategy is fallible because the herd knows about it (or soon will). These technical mavens’ moves are already priced into stocks.

Scientists can also be poor predictors of future technology and advancement. As an astrophysicist, Neil deGrasse Tyson, explains, “…what happens is, if you try to go too far into the future, there is no way you are going to predict the cross-pollination of ideas and fields that produce things that are not extrapolations of anything going on at that time.” He exemplifies this technological development with the iPhone, as it wouldn’t have been created without GPS satellites, cell towers, and the commercialization of space. Variables needed to coalesce and come together to make the idea possible. Predicting each of these individual components is nearly impossible.

Predictive ability chart
Variability shifts from 0 to ∞ across time. From short to long-term periods, our ability to predict what’ll happen next suffers. Also, what do you think of my chart-drawing skills? 😉

Psychologists are another fallible group that’s highlighted for near-telepathic powers. Popular culture seems to hold high esteem for their predictive abilities. They are depicted as readers and savants of the mind. Watch what you’re thinking, they might just read your body language, thoughts, and emotions! The reality is that psychologists aren’t fantastic at predicting behavior; slightly better than the lay public, but that’s not saying much. At their best, psychologists center on past behaviors as predictors of future behavior. Much like the stock chartist or scientist, psychological/behavioral prediction is sort of like analyzing an historical stock market chart and looking for patterns.

In failing to see our losses and failures of prediction, we risk creating confirmation biases. These psychological tricks of the mind make us think we are right — that our hypotheses have time and time again come true. We repress our failures in favor of successes, but in doing so, jeopardize our ability to accurately plan for the future. That’s when we stand to lose boatloads of money.

The fact is, we are fallible creatures. Seemingly, we are basically limited by the amount of knowledge available on the world. At a long enough timeline, nearly everyone fails.

By accounting for predictive limits, we can protect and preserve our wallets. Now, it’s all about what we do with this realization. These are five fast rules for managing your money without genius predictions:

1. Budget based on present day information

The present day includes your current income and expenditures. If you’re budgeting for a car, Christmas presents, or anything else, your budget should account for today’s income — not chances for the future. This will always keep you within limits. Unfortunately, many people use pay raises and predicted promotions to account for future purchases. This mentality can lead to excess debt and complicated repayment plans. Avoid the drama by budgeting based on today’s information — not what tomorrow might be like.

2. Be careful with retirement predictions

Companies like Betterment and Wealthfront have some sexy chartists! They beautifully illustrate the capability of compounding interest and continued investments in average performing stock markets. However, this tends to smooth over the swings of market swings and does not account for the unexpected. In fact, Betterment has a tool that attempts to predict with 50/50 accuracy how your money will perform over a set period, but it’s better to make consistent investments and look at the principal — not the predicted total.

3. Build up emergency funds

From a car accident to strange toenail fungus, you never know when you’ll need to pay for some extra costs. We cannot predict when an accident or the end of a job could occur. To account for our predictive inability, let’s build emergency funds. Most financial experts suggest people maintain about 3 months of solid income, which would cover expenses while you search for a new job or deal with an accident.

4. Avoid following interest rates

Tens of “online banks” are propping up with teaser interest rates. Instead of chasing the next biggest thing, stick with the consistent. For example, Ally Bank has earned my trust and respect after years of solid performance and service. This online bank doesn’t have wacky fees, gives me free checks, and pays a solid interest rate in both checking and savings. When you find a solid, long-term rate, stick with the bank. It pays to find a good company and then worry about making more income elsewhere — not following the next greatest interest rate.

5. Invest regularly – don’t chase bottoms

This tip comes from one of my hardest investing lessons. When it comes to putting money in the stock market, don’t call bottoms. Humans inability to predict is never worse than right here. If you think the market has crashed, you’ll likely be proven wrong. The stock market has tons of false bottoms and tops. Prediction isn’t generally your friend. Instead, I use average investment amounts and make regular investments. When the market suffers, I tend to invest more. But avoid the chase and focus on making consistent investments.

Filed Under: Make Money, Save Money Tagged With: bank accounts, Checking, cnbc, future, Investments, management, money, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Prediction, Psychology, savings, science

The 4 Worst Investment Tips You’ll Ever Hear

By Frugaling 3 Comments

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Worst Investment Advice
Photo: Unsplash

I’d been following the stock market for years by the time I could finally invest on my own. It used to cost $50 a trade with a major broker, and the fees were cost prohibitive. I waited and waited for fees to decline. Instead of trading, I researched stocks and followed prices.

When companies like E*Trade and Ameritrade were born, they slashed trading fees to a manageable $10 to $15. Suddenly, investing became a tool for a greater population. I was a teenager when I made my first trades.

Actually buying and selling — pulling the trigger on a stock — took little of my time. Most of it was spent reviewing reports and books. I read like mad from economics and investing books.

For last 15 years, I’ve heard some comically bad advice. It’s flown in the face of everything I’ve read. Sometimes it’s senseless; at other times, dangerous. If you hear this “advice,” run.

1. Buy low and sell high

I’ve heard this unhelpful tidbit more times than I can count. Usually, it’s repeated by people who understand what the stock market is: a place to buy and sell. But they hardly understand the how.

To actually “buy low and sell high” is far more complicated. The cliché presumes you can spot a low point or “bottom,” have money ready to invest, and “call” the bottom by buying in. Unfortunately, this advice can also encourage people to look for “high” points or a market top or a bubble.

Few people — statistically speaking — can accurately call bottoms and tops. Even the most trained professionals fail over and over again. CNBC anchors, analysts, and commentators regularly preach markets as being oversold and/or overvalued, but rarely are their comments checked — veracity analyzed.

While the guidance is right, I call this bad advice because it doesn’t make you a better investor. Despite the intention, this statement doesn’t help you find lows and highs.

2. Penny stocks lead to significant returns

Amidst this culture of capitalism, get rich quick schemes are everywhere. The stock market, with it’s daily returns and losses, is something of a casino for the world. With one big trade, you could be rich; at least, that’s what might be sold to you with “penny stocks.”

Penny stocks are less than $1.00 and often traded on the OTCBB — an off-market, poorly regulated exchange for little-known companies. Online scammers and tricksters tell potential investors about their regular returns and successes.

Can you believe they made a 1000% gain in a week? They became a millionaire overnight!

They’ll tell you to invest in companies — with little capital needed — and get ready to profit big time. Unfortunately, there’s no reliable way to get rich quick. Penny stocks are a surefire way to lose money. Never listen to those who are swept up in the potential percentage gains of a company’s 50-cent shares.

3. Buy the upgrade, sell the downgrade

Stock analysts might be my least favorite market players. Their salaries and decisions are closely tied to major investment banks, which can lead to a bias in their decision making. Allow me to catalogue some of my concerns.

Firstly, their decisions immediately affect stock prices — regardless of the veracity of the claims.

Secondly, many analyst ratings are a buy — all the time. Regardless of market changes, being on the sell side isn’t rewarded within investment banking companies and predicting a negative downturn is inherently risky when the market tends to go up.

Thirdly, they frequently make positional shifts without lowering prices. For example, let’s say Netflix is 95.90 per share today. A stock analyst might downgrade their position to sell, but keep a $105 price target. So, as an average investor are you supposed to hold onto that position or sell it?!

For most investors, these recommendations don’t make much sense. And trading off of them is an acknowledgement of a “rational” market. But the markets are anything but rational. Emotions constantly affect market capitalizations, and these analyst ratings fail to capture passion.

4. The entire market is going to collapse

Every day, week, month, and year there’s another threat to market returns. Maybe there’s a terrorist attack, climate change, mortgages bubbles, credit card debt crashes, unexpected bankruptcies, etc. All of these events can cause market disturbances, and even more, market mavens peddling “end of days” hypotheses.

In 2009, a powerful documentary came out called Collapse. The film interviewed a charismatic man named Michael Ruppert. He speaks emphatically about the concept of peak oil and how he alone predicted the market crash of 2008.

That’s right, Ruppert, of all men, predicted it all! And when the movie was published, most of the American public was convinced oil would forever escalate. It sat around $70 to $80, and would soon go to $100 per barrel. Ruppert was considered a genius.

His prediction was that the economy would collapse and we’d have to change our why of life — drastically.

But it never came. Instead, oil markets plummeted over the last seven years since the documentary, and Ruppert… well, he died by suicide in 2014.

Investors and abstainers frequently entertain these end of days ideas because it justifies wild investments in commodities or a wholesale avoidance of the stock market. Both decisions put portfolios in peril. Best to keep a moderate perspective and diversify your portfolio.

Filed Under: Make Money Tagged With: Advice, analysts, Collapse, diversification, Investments, money, Stock Market, stocks

The Real Reason Poor People Can’t Save

By Frugaling 29 Comments

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The Real Reason Poor People Can’t Save. People in poverty will continue to sit back and watch as others’ lucrative capital increase until something changes.  #savingmoney #savemoney

The Great Recession was “solved” by a number of rapid fire actions by Congress and the Executive Branch. They came together to fund stimulus bills and negotiate with massive banks. They found a way to save most people’s retirements, despite the corruption and chicanery of companies that caused the mess.

We were in a horrible bind. Most people’s entire wealth was wrapped up in real estate and investments, which were tanking. The bubble had popped. Previously, people with little credit and, sometimes, no down payments were able to buy homes. It inflated everything, as people were buying more than they could ever afford.

After the collapse, a lengthy program called for zero-interest borrowing and quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve (U.S. central bank) doled out massive amounts of money to banks at zero and near-zero interest. Effectively, this would enable banks to give borrowers easier access to mortgages, small business loans, and more. The hope was that banks would generously loan out the money.

Then came quantitative easing. Because the interest rates were already at zero, the Federal Reserve (central bank) couldn’t prop up the banks this way any more. They made a last ditch effort and started buying bonds (or, debt) of financial institutions (i.e., Bank of America, Chase, and Wells Fargo).

Every time there was speculation that the discount window to interest-free loans or quantitative easing would come to an end, the stock market would hiccup. Investments would nose dive and a panicked market pleaded with Federal Reserve chairs to hold back – the economy was still “soft.”

Economic stimulation of this sort allowed people to spend more, too. By acquiring low-interest debt, people could buy more, bigger, and better. Everything seemed more affordable when loans were artificially depressed (heck, that’s why I bought a car I couldn’t afford).

Screenshot 2015-05-28 17.29.08People with money bought and bought. And they invested like mad. Those who invested post-Great Recession were rewarded handsomely. From the bottom of the crash to now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has returned approximately 173%. In other words, investors who got in mid-2009 and 2010 have nearly doubled their money!

One of the saving graces of today’s economy is that inflation has held constant. Throughout 2014, the inflation rate ranged from 0.8 to 2.1% every month. And inflation is an important variable in this conversation, because it’s essentially a measure of affordability. When inflation increases, the consumer price of all goods increases. Everything from bread to cars to homes is affected by this measure.

Thus, in 2014 the average inflation rate was 1.77%. Not too shabby! When you compare that to deflationary or atmospheric inflation, we are in a pleasant sweet spot. The price of goods are increasing at a controlled, moderate rate.

For most of us, the stimulus has worked. My investments are doing better than ever and I’m seeing some sizable gains. The future of my money looks brighter.

Additionally, I have fewer “savings” than ever, and that’s a good thing because I have more invested than ever. I followed the financial advice of the world and realized that cash is a drag. I don’t mean that tongue-in-cheek. Cash suffocates returns, because checking and savings accounts pay next to nothing (even if you choose an online bank). To let cash sit in those accounts means that we accept a pittance and suffer from inflation rates.

Let me put this together. We have benefited from the Federal Reserve’s decision to provide easy capital to banks, which then presumably went to consumers. Similarly, quantitative easing has further supported banks recovery and ability to loan. Investments are spectacular right now, too. But this combination of events has wreaked havoc on the most desperate among us.

The advice for someone like me (who has some – albeit small – amounts of money) is to invest. Don’t suffer the cash drag. Unfortunately, that financial advice doesn’t apply to the poorest among us. Those with irregular and/or unknown paychecks by amount and/or interval can’t invest the money. By investing their funds, they could put themselves at risk because they don’t have enough liquidity. Additionally, they might not be able to invest because they barely have enough at the end of every month to scrape by.

That’s where the advice between wealthy and poor individuals diverges. Our financial commentators tell wealthy people to invest, and the impoverished to save. If only the poor would save more, their lives might be better. Except, if you’ve been following along, “saving money” doesn’t mean protecting money. The average interest rate of savings accounts was 0.06% in 2014. At Bank of America, Chase, PNC Bank, and Wells Fargo – all the brick and mortar banks that those in poverty are more likely to use – the interest rate is a dormant 0.01%.

Let’s say you’re Joe Poverty, trying to save. Mr. Poverty has turned on CNBC, Fox News, and CNN to listen to all the financial advice he can get his hands on. He’s motivated and leans in. He wants to live better, eat healthier, and save for the future. He wants to pay his daughter’s student loans, and he feels guilty that he couldn’t support her. His first step is to open a checking and savings account at a local, popular bank. He needs to be able to pay bills and receive paychecks, but he also wants to begin saving. The checking and savings accounts will pay him 0% and 0.01%, respectively.

Now, here’s where things get really sad. Joe Poverty is going to stay in poverty using this method. Unless he can drastically increase his income and build a huge safety net, he won’t have enough to invest each month. Because he’ll be precluded from investing, his only hope is to save. So he does. And he does. And he does. He’s motivated, remember? He cares about his daughter and wants to succeed.

He drops money here and there into the savings account. But each month that money is worth less and less. Despite his attempts to save at 0.01%, the inflation rate hovers around 1.77%. Effectively, he loses 1.76% every month in spending power. The savings are hibernating, as the world around those dollars is ablaze. The market is benefiting nearly every day from free-flowing capital, but the poorest have had to sit by and watch it happen. Every month, having less.

At some point, Joe Poverty feels like “he’s failing.” He turns on the channels, rereads books, and looks at his savings account. Despite his efforts, he can’t afford to pay off his daughter’s loans. Her loans accelerate at 6.8% interest, as his savings lingers.

This economy disincentivized savings. It trumped up how easy it is to spend and invest, while ignoring those most in need. Savings rates used to 3%, 4%, and 5% only a few years ago. They could easily beat the inflation rate, and incentivize savings. People really added to their wealth when they saved.

Even worse, by disincentivizing savings, those who might need positive reinforcement didn’t receive it. In fact, they were punished for saving. They had less and less each month. The savings were an illusion, and the purposelessness was degrading. Who wants to continue trying to save and add to their income – following the advice of wizened “gurus” – only to find out they’re failing?

The Great Recession hurt nearly everyone. The actions that the government took are debatable. The necessity of those actions are questionable. But the result is undeniable. People have been encouraged to spend free cash and invest for the long term. Neither are bad options in a low-rate environment. Sickeningly, that advice doesn’t apply to everyone.

People in poverty will continue to sit back and watch as others’ lucrative capital increase until something changes. We need the Federal Reserve and the government to incentivize savings like mad. We need an economy and country that’s prosperous for a greater whole, not a select few. The discount window for loans must raise their interest. The quantitative easing must stop. And the world must compromise investment performance for a short while – adjusting to the new rates – to encourage everyone to save.

It’s no longer enough to verbally smack and accost the most destitute without understanding the systemic factors that prevent their success. It’s time we advocate for respect and change these financial practices. Then, and only then, will the advice to “save” make cents.

Filed Under: Save Money, Social Justice Tagged With: Account, Bank, Income, invest, Investments, money, poor, poverty, savings, Social Justice, Wealth

How To Use Dividends To Reduce Taxes And Protect Income

By Frugaling 6 Comments

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Dividends Photo
Photo: LendingMemo

Over the last few months, I developed plans to minimize my tax bill, earn more money, and invest in the stock market. Much of this financial planning is motivated by an upcoming tax burden that’s sure to sting.

The problem starts with self-employed earnings. These are filed under Schedule C of the U.S. tax code. Unfortunately, those earnings don’t include withheld funds that support Medicare and Social Security. To account for this, the federal government requests about 30% in self-employment taxes.

As someone who’s funneled as much cash as possible to swiftly pay off student loans, I don’t necessarily have a lot of liquidity or extra funds to pay this tax bill (yet). The U.S. government doesn’t adequately account for someone paying off student loans when asking for the tax bill at the end of the year (and this is just the tip of the iceberg for financial aid concerns).

With these worries in mind, I took time today to restrict my spending ability, increase my regular income, and provide a bit of a tax shelter. And it all starts with dividends.

One of the most contentious elements in our tax code has to do with capital gains and dividend taxes. Whereas normal income from work is taxed at steep, progressive rates, these stock-affiliated earnings receive an artificial discount. If you make over $406,750 as a single person, you pay only a 20% tax on dividend earnings. And if you hold stocks/assets for over one year, you also qualify for this reduced rate.

Dividend income
Only 20% of qualified dividends and long-term capital gains are taxed for those making over $406,750 per year.

For me, as a single filer with projected earnings of less than $36,900 for 2014, I’m looking at a brilliant tax rate of 0%! You heard me right: zero percent! That means for every stock that I hold onto for over one year or qualified dividend I receive, I should be able to keep the entirety of that income. Here’s where nifty financial planning will help lower my tax burden and increase the money in my pocket.

Today, I made a small (large for me, though) investment in Apple Inc. (AAPL). The stock is currently valued at $95.25, as of August 5, 2014. At that value, it is hardly one of the greatest income earners, but it pays a substantial 2% dividend yield. Simultaneously, Apple is still highly favorable among stock analysts — Yahoo Finance suggests that the collective price target is $104.79 within 1 year.

Based on stagnant yield growth, I should make about $31.96 per year from dividends. That’s all income that should receive a 0% tax due to those gains. Based on about a 10% (possible) appreciation in Apple for one year, any gains will be completely protected from taxation — even after I sell the stock. I will again have the 0% tax liability.

Long term capital gains and dividend income
This is the benefit! I’ll be paying nothing via qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxes!

The political climate around changing capital gains taxes is terrible. The regulations should change — they need to stop benefiting the wealthy. Warren Buffett has frequently complained about this tax code inconsistency, and suggested that it unfairly rewards the wealthy. I think he knows a thing or two about investing, too! Until then, and as a low-income earner, I need to use this system to my advantage to reduce my tax liability and increase earnings.

Filed Under: Make Money Tagged With: Capital, Dividend, dividends, gains, Income, invest, Investments, stock, Stock Market, taxes, Warren Buffett

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